SPORTS ADVISORS
MAC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Buffalo (7-5, 8-4 ATS) vs. Ball State (12-0, 8-2-1 ATS) (at Detroit)
The Cardinals will try to stay perfect on the season and claim their first conference title in 12 years when they take on surprising Buffalo at Ford Field in Detroit in the Mid-American Conference championship game.
The Cardinals captured the MAC’s West Division title and capped off its first perfect regular season since 1949 with last Tuesday’s 45-22 home win over Western Michigan as 10-point favorites in the regular-season finale. Junior RB MiQuale Lewis scored three TDs in the victory, giving him a school-record 20 this year, and he leads the MAC with 1,570 yards rushing and ranks fourth in the nation at 130.8 yards per game.
Ball State’s high-powered offense is averaging 37.7 points per game, which ranks 15th in the nation as the Cardinals have scored at least 31 points in all but one contest this season. Junior QB Nate Davis is sixth in the nation with a 169.3 passer rating, having thrown for 3.095 yards, 25 TDs and six interceptions. With Davis at the helm, Ball State outgained all but one opponent this year.
One week after clinching the MAC East Division with an overtime victory at Bowling Green, Buffalo had its five-game winning streak (4-1 ATS) halted a week ago, losing to Kent State 24-21 as a nine-point home favorite. Junior RB James Starks ran for 1,226 yards this season to break the Bulls’ school single-season record, and he ranks sixth in the nation at 122.6 rushing yards per game. Junior WR Naaman Roosevelt has caught 86 passes for a MAC-leading 1,196 yards and 10 TDs, and QB Drew Willy has passed for 2,885 yards with 22 TDs and just five INTs.
Including last week’s narrow loss to Kent State, Buffalo has played seven games this year decided by three points or fewer or in overtime.
The Bulls average 30.2 points and 387.2 yards per game (145 rushing ypg), but tonight they face a Ball State defense giving up just 16.7 points and 351.8 yards per contest (145.7 rushing ypg). Meanwhile, the Cardinals run up against a Buffalo D that’s yielding 27.8 points and 400.4 yards per game (159.3 rushing ypg). In fact, the Bulls have surrendered at least 24 points in nine of their 12 games this year.
Ball State dominated Buffalo in their conference meeting last season, winning 49-14 as a 14-point home favorite. The Cardinals have won four straight over the Bulls dating back to 2000, going 3-1 ATS in the process. Ball State outrushed Buffalo 274-83 in last year’s blowout, and Davis threw for 233 yards and three TD and added 44 rushing yards on just five carries.
Buffalo has lost eight straight games against ranked opponents, but the Bulls have covered eight straight as an underdog (6-0 ATS this year as a pup), and they’re on additional ATS runs of 10-4 in MAC action, 5-1 following a non-cover and 6-0 away from home this season. Ball State also is riding several positive ATS streaks, including 20-7 overall, 6-2 in MAC play, 5-1 away from home this year and 20-8 against teams with a winning record.
The over trends dominate for the Bulls, including 6-1 overall, 20-8 in MAC games and 5-2 against teams with a winning record. Conversely, Ball State carries “under” streaks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 after a spread-cover and 5-2 after a straight-up win. Lastly, all four meetings this decade between these teams have flown over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BALL STATE and OVER
NBA
Philadelphia (8-11, 7-12 ATS) at Detroit (11-6, 9-8 ATS)
Two teams headed in opposite directions are set to square off as the ice-cold Sixers make the trek to Detroit’s Palace of Auburn Hills to take on the Pistons.
Philadelphia has dropped five of its last six SU and ATS, including Wednesday’s 114-102 home loss to the Lakers, falling short as a nine-point underdog. However, the Sixers’ lone win during this 1-5 slump came in their most recent road game, Tuesday’s 103-95 overtime victory at Chicago as a two-point underdog.
Detroit has won three of its last four and delivered a gem of a defensive show Tuesday, beating the Spurs 89-77 in San Antonio as a 5½-point pup. The Pistons are just 2-2 SU and ATS in their last four at home, including Sunday’s 96-85 loss to the Blazers as four-point favorites.
Detroit knocked the Sixers out of the Eastern Conference playoffs last season in six games, losing two of the first three contests both SU and ATS before sweeping the final three games SU and ATS to take the best-of-7 battle. Philadelphia went 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in the four regular-season meetings last year. The SU winner is 9-0 ATS in the last nine head-to-head clashes.
Philadelphia is on a host of ATS slides, including 1-4 overall, 3-7 on the road, 6-15 against the Eastern Conference and 2-5 after a straight-up loss. However, they have cashed in seven straight games when coming off a double-digit home loss. The Pistons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 at home against teams with a losing road record.
The under has been the play lately for the Sixers, including 7-3-1 against the Central Division, 8-2-2 against the Eastern Conference, 5-0 on Fridays and 5-1-1 when playing after a day off. For Detroit, the under is on streaks of 7-1 overall, 5-1 at home, 4-1 against Eastern Conference teams and 7-2 against teams with a losing record. Also, the under is 7-3 in the last 10 clashes in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DETROIT and UNDER
Portland (14-6, 11-9 ATS) at Boston (18-2, 11-9 ATS)
Two of the hottest teams in the NBA meet tonight at TD BankNorth Garden in Boston when the defending-champion Celtics put their 10-game winning streak on the line against the Blazers.
Portland has won six straight (3-3 ATS), including three in a row at the start of an ongoing five-game road trip. However, after opening the trip with Sunday’s 96-85 upset win at Detroit, the Blazers came up just short against the number in wins at the Knicks (104-97 as an eight-point ‘dog) and Wizards (98-92 as a 6 ½-point pup). Portland has turned up the defensive intensity in its last five games, allowing 85.6 points per game (42.6 percent shooting) while scoring 101 ppg (49.2 percent).
Boston’s winning streak reached 10 with Wednesday’s 114-96 home win over the Pacers, cashing as a 14½-point favorite to move to 7-3 ATS during this run. The Celtics are 6-6 ATS at home this season, but 3-0 ATS in their last three in front of the home crowd.
Doc Rivers’ squad has won six in a row against Portland, sweeping last year’s two games, including a 100-90 home win in January as an eight-point favorite. The Celtics have gotten the cash in seven straight meetings against the Blazers, five times as the favorite. The visitor is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 series clashes, the favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six and the straight-up winner is 8-2 ATS in the last 10.
Portland is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against Atlantic Division teams, but the Blazers are on positive pointspread runs of 5-2 against the Eastern Conference, 7-2 when playing after a day of rest, 4-0 on Fridays and 6-1 against teams with a winning record. Boston is riding a plethora of ATS hot streaks, including 7-2 overall, 5-1 at home, 19-7 against the Western Conference, 4-0 after a day off and 35-16-1 after a spread-cover.
The Blazers are on under runs of 7-0 overall, 4-0 on the road, 5-0 against the Eastern Conference, 17-5 after a straight-up win and 14-6 on Fridays. Boston has stayed below the posted total in five of its last six Friday games, but otherwise the Celtics are on over streaks of 4-2 at home, 4-2 overall, 25-10 against Northwest Division teams and 5-0 against teams with a winning record. The over is also 5-1 in the last six Blazers-Celtics clashes overall and 5-1 in the last six battles in Boston.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
Toronto (8-9, 6-11 ATS) at Utah (12-8, 10-10 ATS)
The Raptors will try to rebound from their most lopsided loss of the season when they visit EnergySolutions Arena in Salt Lake City to take on the Jazz in the finale of a three-game Western Conference road trip.
Toronto fired coach Sam Mitchell on Wednesday, hours after Tuesday’s embarrassing 132-93 loss at Denver as a 5-point underdog. The Raptors have dropped four of six overall (0-6 ATS), and they have failed to top the 100-point mark in their last four.
Utah was a perfect 6-0 at home (4-2 ATS) until Nov. 24 when the Bulls scored a 101-100 win as 6½-point ‘dogs. Including that setback, the Jazz have now dropped three of their last five home games SU and ATS, including two in a row after Wednesday’s 93-89 loss to the Heat as four-point favorites.
Jerry Sloan’s squad has won six straight over the Raptors (5-1 ATS), including a dominating 96-79 home win in March as 13½-point favorites. The favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven series clashes, and the straight-up winner is 8-2 ATS in the last 10.
Toronto is 6-1 ATS in its last seven when getting two days off, but otherwise the Raptors are on ATS slides of 0-9 against the Western Conference, 3-13 on Fridays, and 5-13 on the road against teams with a winning home record. The Jazz are just 1-4 ATS in their last five on Fridays and 1-6 ATS in their last seven against the Eastern Conference, but they’re still on ATS upticks of 45-21-2 at home, 4-0 after a non-cover and 4-1 against teams with a losing record.
The Raptors are on over streaks of 8-2 overall, 4-0 on the road, 10-4 on Fridays, and 5-1 after a straight-up loss. Meanwhile, the Jazz are on over stretches of 6-1 after a day off, 5-0 on Fridays, 5-1 after a straight-up loss and 9-3 at home against teams with a losing road record. Finally, these teams have stayed under the total in their last four meetings overall, but the over is 5-2 in the last seven series clashes in Utah.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
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